I am sitting with one of my all-time favorite CS books, Transaction Processing by Jim Gray and Andreas Reuter, in plain sight as it always is when I’m working. The case has been widely picked up by the general media, so I will post only a few thoughts that might add something.
Jim was reported overdue at 8:35 PM on Sunday. He was out for a day sail and was expected back in the late afternoon.
Distance from SF to the Fallaron Islands, his apparent destination, is 25 nm. Hull speed of the C&C 40 is 6.75 knots, so trip time at hull speed from Golden Gate to the islands would be about 4 hours.
What might have happened? Based on my offshore experience, I’d guess man overboard. Jim is said to have decades’ sailing behind him, so he would have known to stay clipped on. Harnesses do (rarely) fail, though, and more frequently folks go for a few moments without a positive connection to the vessel. The difficulty of getting back on a moving vessel is also something I am familiar with; the C&C 40 looks to have a swim ladder on that reverse transom. I hope so, anyhow.
Collision with a freighter seems less likely with the excellent weather. Collision with a container is a more random event, since they float awash if they come off a ship. I have heard of boats suffering catastrophic damage from a container strike. If she filled and sank after hitting a container, that would be consistent with the lack of wreckage.
The C&C 40 was an excellent yacht, but they had a few nasty failure modes, “wet core balsa” among them. Equipment failure that would cause catastrophic damage seems unlikely. Equipment failure that left her unable to move or communicate?
Jim is said to be in good health and was apparently in good spirits when he was last heard from. Sudden health events do happen to us older guys, though.
Man overboard comes out of this looking most likely. If the ship were on autopilot and under sail she might be up to 400 miles from where she started.
If Jim is overboard, and assuming he’s alive, how do we find him? The Coasties have not had any success. Re-tasking a satellite seems like a possibility, but how can we find the right needle in the haystack? Joe Duck is on the job up in Oregon, which is now in the expanded search area. There’s a collective of amateur SAR kibitzers and occasional visits from professional SAR folks that merits some respect.
